Coronavirus drama started one year ago

The COVID-19 drama began a year ago as cases of pneumonia of unknown cause surfaced in the Chinese city of Wuhan. The World Health Organization (WHO) was alerted on Dec 31, and much of the world locked down in the following months as deaths mounted. As the anniversary arrives there are signs of hope. A number of vaccines have shown promising results and vaccination programmes are expected to begin in the U.S., UK and Germany this month.

On Feb 11 the WHO named the disease COVID-19, short for coronavirus disease 2019. At that point there were 43,103 confirmed cases of the infection and 1,018 deaths – more than the total number of deaths during the SARS outbreak of 2002-2004. By Mar 8 more than 100 countries had reported cases of COVID-19, and on Mar 11 the WHO declared it to be an official pandemic.

In the following months, most countries instituted extreme lockdowns out of what was termed "an abundance of caution." There were some notable exceptions. Belarus, for one, denied that COVID-19 was an issue and imposed no restrictions. Sweden made restrictions, such as so-called social distancing, voluntary.

By the end of April, the International Monetary Fund was describing the economic cost of the pandemic in apocalyptic terms. Over 200,000 people were known to have died from the disease, and it was just starting to take hold in parts of the developing world. At the same time, some Asian and European countries were beginning to see a decline in deaths and infections. In the United States the picture was mixed. Some states saw an easing of deaths and infections. In others, they were still rising. The looming November election gave every coronavirus measure in every state a political twist, and gave rise to an outbreak of partisan protests against the restrictions.

By the anniversary, there should be real numbers for deaths and economic damage to lend to arguments about which governments acted in a timely and appropriate manner, which overreacted or underreacted, which can be blamed for lying. The conclusions, without exception, will be a matter of political opinion.