ECUADOR

As presidential race heats up will Ecuador remain a bastion for the left?

April 2, 2017

Ecuador holds a hotly contested presidential runoff vote to replace the outgoing President Rafael Correa.

After coming second in the first-round vote on Feb 19, the Creating Opportunities party candidate Guillermo Lasso pulled into a slight lead in head-to-head polling against his competitor, Lenin Moreno of the ruling PAIS Alliance.

Moreno almost won the first-round vote outright with 39.4 percent of ballots, just below the 40 percent threshold needed, but his support has barely increased and analysts expect that the second round is not likely to favour the 63-year-old former vice president. They predict opposition parties could join forces around Lasso, who has vehemently attacked the government, blaming it for an economic downturn and corruption scandals.

After 10 years in office, Correa finds his legacy in the balance. When he became president Latin America’s “pink tide” was at its high-water mark, with leftwing leaders such as Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales and Rafael Correa in power across the continent.

But death and election defeat have since taken their toll. Cuba is on a path of moderate reform after Castro’s death. Venezuela was in crisis even before Chavez succumbed to cancer in 2013. Morales failed in an attempt in 2016 to change the constitution to allow him to run for re-election. It remains to be seen whether Ecuador will follow the continental trend towards centre-right government or remain a bastion for the left.

#22101 Published: March 20, 2017