20th anniversary of Hong Kong handover a day for cultural events and possible demonstrations

The 20th anniversary of Britain’s handover of Hong Kong to China after 156 years of colonial rule almost promises civil unrest. The scale and intensity will indicate whether the pro-democracy movement is resurgent after its failure to see the city’s Chief Executive freely elected in the March poll, or is succumbing to pragmatism.

Performances from the Peking Opera Theatre and the Berlin Philharmonic with pianist Lang Lang, and even a Yao Ming charity basketball match, are among the handover anniversary events, according to the South China Morning Post.

Ahead of the poll activists fought for the freedom to freely choose candidates for Chief Executive, the top leadership position. The mainly Beijing-friendly members of the Legislative Council in 2014 instead chose a formula that keeps China’s hand in the selection of the candidates.

Pragmatists can argue that the first Chief Executive was appointed by Beijing at the time of the handover and the second was elected, evidence that Beijing is delivering reforms and the autonomy enshrined in the Basic Law. Big demonstrations on Jul 1 will say the activists are not persuaded.

The Basic Law, the outcome of the 1984 Sino-British Declaration on Hong Kong's future, was a de facto constitution that promised the territory would be run under the principle of "one country, two systems" until 2047. The grievance that has prompted civil unrest in the past, most notably the pro-democracy Occupy Central and Yellow Umbrella movements that caused particular chaos in the city in 2014, is that post-handover reforms have created the appearance of the autonomy embedded in the Basic Law without delivering it: the reforms allow elections to the Legislative Council and for Chief Executive, but Beijing controls eligibility to run.