Gemiddelde verkiezingspeiling geeft Trump 2 punten voorsprong op Biden
December 6, 2023 - With less than a year to go until the U.S. general election, RealClearPolitics’ poll average shows President Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump by 2 points nationally.
With 11 months to go until the U.S. general election, RealClearPolitics’ poll average posits President Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump by 2 points nationally.
Much of the accompanying commentary would have you believe that Biden is doomed and that his multiracial base shows signs of fraying. But is that really the case?
Theories abound as to the cause of Biden’s apparent fall in favour suggest three possibilities:
1) The polls give a clear warning that Biden is a flawed candidate and another Democrat would do better.
2) Biden faces a tough environment with voters disliking the economy and state of the world – and he’s taking the hit for it.
3) Biden’s poor polling numbers will bounce back, as currently voters aren’t paying much attention yet.
In reality, it’s probably too early to tell what’s going to happen because polls can’t predict who will win a year from now, or even show who the presidential nominees might be in several months time.
Still, polls remain useful barometers to determine if a political contest is close or not – this one is – and whether a politician or policy is popular with the overall electorate and key demographics.