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 Exit poll Polen infographic
Graphic shows Ipsos exit poll following Poland’s parliamentary election.


Poolse verkiezingsschok

By Duncan Mil

October 16, 2023 - Despite winning the most votes, Poland’s incumbent Law and Justice party (PiS) has lost its election majority, and Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition will likely form a coalition.

According to an exit poll by Ipsos, PiS is heading for 198 seats in the 460-seat Sejm or parliament but will fall short of the 231 needed for a majority.

Election officials said that turnout was 72.9%, the highest since the fall of communism in 1989. The previous record was 62.7% in 1989.

Trailing PiS’ 36.8% vote share, the centrist Civic Coalition (KO) is in second with 31.6% and will likely secure 161 seats.

President Andrzej Duda will initially ask the biggest party -- right-wing, populist PiS -- to form a government.

However, KO (with 161 seats), Third Way (57 seats), and The Left (30 seats) will have a combined 248 seats, according to Ipsos’s estimates. That would allow them to form a government.

Ipsos conducted the exit poll at 900 randomly selected polling stations with a sample of around 90,000 people, far more significant than average opinion polls.

PUBLISHED: 16/10/2023; STORY: Graphic News; PICTURES: Getty Images