Economías en vías de recuperación -- OCDE
September 22, 2020 - Todos los países del G20 excepto China están enfrentando recesión este año – reflejo de la crisis de salud mundial – pero la actividad económica deberá recuperarse en 2021, según el más reciente Panorama Provisional de la OCDE.
With the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to threaten jobs, businesses and the health and well-being of millions, building confidence will be crucial to ensure that economies recover and adapt, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) report.
Presenting the Interim Economic Outlook, covering G20 economies, OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone said: “The world is facing an acute health crisis and the most dramatic economic slowdown since the Second World War. The end is not yet in sight but there is still much policymakers can do to help build confidence.”
The OECD expects global real gross domestic product (GDP) to return to its pre-pandemic level by the third quarter of 2021. Among the Group of Seven economies, GDP will fall most dramatically in the United Kingdom. GDP will plunge by -10.1% in 2020, before rebounding by 7.6 % in 2021.
In France, GDP will decline by -9.5%, recovering by 5.8%. The OECD expects GDP to fall sharply in Italy, Canada and Germany by -10.5%, -5.8% and -5.4% respectively, before bouncing back by 5.4%, 4.0% and 4.6%.
In the U.S., GDP is forecast to contract by -3.8% in 2020, before rebounding by 4.0% next year. While in Japan, GDP will shrink by -5.8% before recovering by 1.5% in 2021.
Amongst all the G20 countries, India is forecast to sink by -10.2% year-on-year in 2020, before rebounding by 10.7% next year.
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