NEGOCIOS
Desaceleración económica de India
January 16, 2020 - La promesa del primer ministro Narendra Modi de convertir a India en una economía de $5 billones para 2024 – eclipsando al RU y Alemania – requiere que el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) se expanda a más de 11% durante los próximos cuatro años -- más del doble del cinco por ciento estimado por la Oficina Central de Estadística (CSO) de India para el año fiscal 2019-20.
The CSO estimate puts the country’s growth at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Former Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan has called for significant reforms to boost India’s economy.
“We have a lot of young people entering the labour force. We need to provide jobs for them, and even if much of the growth is job-oriented, five percent doesn’t cut it,” Rajan said during an interview with CNBC on January 13.
In May last year, Rathin Roy, then a member of Modi’s Economic Advisory Council, warned that India’s growth is faltering at lower-middle-income levels -- defined by the World Bank as per capita income between $1,026 and $3,995. “No country which has been in a middle-income trap has been able to come out of it,” Roy warned.
India’s per capita income is about $2,000 a year -- trailing Indonesia, where per capita income is at $3,900, and dwarfed by China’s $9,800, South Korea’s $31,000 and the U.S.’s $62,600.