Earth given “all clear” over asteroid threat

February 26, 2025 - Scientists have slashed the odds of Earth being struck by asteroid 2024 YR4 in the year 2032, from a 1 in 32 chance to a 1 in 59,000 chance – a probability of 3.1% down to 0.002% – virtually none.

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Astronomers, who have been monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, can breathe a sigh of relief after NASA announced that the odds of a it colliding with Earth in the year 2032 have now fallen to nearly zero.

Since its discovery on December 27, 2024, scientists have been frantically computing the odds of it striking Earth – at one point reaching as high as a probability of 3.1% or a 1 in 32 chance.

Measuring between 40 metres and 100 metres wide, 2024 YR4 is big enough to wipe out a city, with early estimates of its trajectory showing it could collide with some countries near the Equator, including Colombia, Cameroon, Nigeria and India.

However, as scientists study greater amounts of data, the odds of an impact have diminished substantially in the last few days, with it now registering a 0.0017% chance of hitting us – a one in 59,000 chance.

Earth may have avoided destruction, but NASA now says there is a probability of 1.7% that 2024 YR4 will hit the moon instead.