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 YouGov vote forecast infographic
Graphic shows predicted seats by party in next 650-seat House of Commons. Final results are shown in GN46025.


YouGov poll points to Labour landslide

By Duncan Mil

June 25, 2024 - Labour is on course for a majority of 200, according to a new YouGov projection, while the Conservatives will slump to their lowest number of seats since the party’s formation in 1834.

The latest YouGov MRP projection suggests Labour would have as many as 425 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons.

The YouGov/Sky MRP poll -- which stands for multilevel regression post-stratification -- is a type of poll that uses massive amounts of data, including a large sample size -- 39,979 adults surveyed, June 11-18, 2024.

The projection suggests Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives would plummet to 108 seats -- way down from the 365 won by Boris Johnson in the 2019 election. The result would break all historical records, putting the Tories well below their previous low of 141 seats in 1906 under Arthur Balfour.

Since the last YouGov MRP was published on June 3, the pollster has changed its calls in 59 seats.

According to this latest projection, 15 of the 27 cabinet members still standing in the election will lose their seats. It also suggests the Conservatives risk an all-or-near wipeout in the northeast, Wales, and the north-west.

PUBLISHED: 25/06/2024; STORY: Graphic News; PICTURES: Getty Images