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 Trouble ahead for next UK government infographic
Graphic charts poll of UK election voting intentions.


UK election winner to face huge fiscal problems

By Ninian Carter

January 25, 2024 - The UK’s opposition Labour Party, which has been leading polls for months and looks likely to win the 2024 general election, will inherit the country’s most challenging fiscal problems in decades.

With Keir Starmer’s Labour Party enjoying a commanding lead in election opinion polls over the incumbent Conservatives, it’s likely that a future Labour government will face financial problems not seen in the United Kingdom since the 1960s, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The think tank says a combination of high interest costs and weak economic growth means the winner of the 2024 UK general election, expected in the second-half of the year, will find it more difficult to reduce debt as a fraction of national income than in any previous parliament for decades.

Britain’s debt, which has soared from 50% of GDP to almost 100% of GDP in the last 15 years (most of which were governed by the Conservative Party), will require the next government to raise more tax than it spends on everything other than debt interest – a methodology known as “primary surplus”.

PUBLISHED: 25/01/2024; STORY: Graphic News; PICTURES: Getty Images