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Demand for fossil fuels could peak by 2030
October 25, 2023 - The International Energy Agency predicts that global demand for oil, natural gas and coal will peak by 2030 – as increasing use of cleaner technologies transforms the energy landscape.
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global demand for oil, natural gas and coal will peak by 2030, in part due to countries adopting cleaner forms of energy and transportation. In the U.S. for example, electric cars are projected to make up 50% of new sales by the end of the decade.
However, a peak in fossil fuel use will not be enough to avert global warming – to do that, emissions from coal, oil and natural gas would need to fall to almost zero.
In a new report published by the IEA, they forecast that by 2030, there could be 10 times as many electric vehicles on the road as there are today, with solar, wind and hydropower energy sources supplying 50% of the world’s electricity – up from 30% today.
China, which accounts for half the world’s coal use, may be seeing a levelling off in its appetite for steel and cement, which would reduce fossil fuel demand.
If the IEA are right, oil and gas demand would most likely plateau at slightly above today’s levels for the next 30 years as its use expands in developing countries and shrinks in advanced economies. The use of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, would decline sharply.
It should be noted that predictions in global energy trends are extremely difficult, with the IEA having been wrong before.