Social Democrat poll lead in German election
August 26, 2021 - September 26, 2021 - Just weeks before German voters determine Chancellor Angela Merkel’s successor, her centre-right conservative CDU/CSU bloc has been overtaken in polls by the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD).
The SPD was up two percentage points compared to a week ago at 23%. At the same time, the Christian Democratic Union and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, slipped a point to 22%. The Greens have fallen to 18%, according to a Forsa poll for RTL/NTV.
Complicating the CDU/CSU’s position, supporters of the Christian Democrats are having grave doubts over their choice of candidate for chancellor, Armin Laschet, the CDU chairman.
Laschet’s ratings have tumbled since he was caught on camera laughing during a visit last month to a town hit by floods.
Support for Laschet fell in the Forsa poll, while it rose for the SPD’s candidate, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz.
Deutsche Presse-Agentur also reports that a survey by market research group Civey found 70 per cent of those who support the CDU/CSU bloc favour replacing Laschet with CSU leader Markus Soeder.
The polls suggest that the only possible coalitions would need three parties to work together rather than the current two -- bringing in the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens.
Under a Laschet win, the CDU/CSU will likely strike a coalition deal with the Greens and the FDP -- a “Jamaica” alliance, so-called because the party colours black, green and yellow match the Caribbean island’s flag.
However, if the SPD prevails, Scholz could form a red-yellow-green coalition with the FDP and the Greens, known as the “traffic light” option.
Germany goes to the polls on September 26.