WeekAhead events

According to Reuters, Trump has made clear he is unhappy with Japan’s US $69 billion trade surplus with the United States, mainly from auto exports, and he wants a two-way agreement to address it. For the present, Japanese automakers are protected from further tariffs, which are seen as a major threat to the export-dependent Japanese economy.

Trump would likely become the first foreign state guest to meet with Crown Prince Naruhito after he accedes to the throne on May 1, following the abdication of his father Emperor Akihito on Apr 30.

According to Kyodo, Abe and Trump are also expected to discuss how best to deal with North Korea in the wake of the collapse of a second summit between the U.S. president and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in February in Vietnam. Abe and Trump are expected to affirm the international sanctions on Pyongyang until it achieves complete denuclearization, according to the Japanese news service.

• Abe eyes U.S. trip in late April for talks with Trump on trade: sources (Kyodo/Japan Times Mar 2019)
• Japan dodges U.S. auto tariffs, for now, as Trump and Abe agree on trade talks (Reuters Sep 2018)

#23053 Published: 03/21/2019

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Gun-rights activists, policy experts and gun-control advocates interviewed by Reuters see the rise of the fundamentalists as a worry for the NRA leadership as it threatens the association’s ability to hold on to moderate supporters and to make compromises that might help fend off tougher gun control measures.

With the Democrats holding the House of Representatives again following the 2018 election, the NRA can expect to be pressured for additional concessions. Several legislators are promising congressional action on gun control amid the rash of mass shootings, which included an assault at a Pittsburgh synagogue that killed 11 worshippers in October and a late-night attack at a California bar that killed 12 people in November.

The association has allowed very tiny concessions to the gun control activists in the aftermath of recent mass shootings, and they have upset fundamentalist members as too conciliatory on gun rights.

A lone gunman in New Zealand killed at least 50 worshippers at a Christchurch mosque in March, and the country appears to be headed toward bipartisan determination to tighten gun controls. The possibility that U.S. lawmakers could be infected with bipartisanship on gun control looms as a new worry for the NRA, but of less immediate concern than the Connecticut Supreme Court ruling in March that gives victims of the 2012 mass shooting at the Sandy Hook school the right to sue the maker of the shooter’s weapon, Remington.

Reuters notes that opinion polls such as Gallup surveys show growing support for gun control in recent years. Within that trend, support for gun control typically spikes immediately after mass shootings, then falls closer to pre-massacre levels within a few months. Amid nationwide protests that followed a Florida high school shooting that killed 17 people in February 2018, the NRA endorsed strengthening background checks for gun purchasers and emergency protection orders that allow law-enforcement officials to temporarily take guns away from people deemed dangerous.

A political lobby that today claims five million members and is closely aligned with the Republican Party, the NRA supports pro-gun politicians. The organization is reported to have spent US $30 million to support Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. He made his fourth address to the NRA meeting in 2018, and is likely to do the same in 2019.

• NRA web
• Hardline U.S. 'gundamentalists' pressure NRA from within (Reuters Aug 2018)
• NRA claims deep financial troubles (CNN Aug 2018)
• Democrats Promise Congressional Action on Gun Control (AP/USNews Nov 2018)

#22832 Updated: 03/19/2019 UPDATED MAR 18 TO INCLUDE NZ MOSQUE SHOOTING AND COURT DECISION THAT GUN MAKER CAN BE SUED

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The April vote, the country’s third general election since late 2015, ends the shortest and probably frailest government in modern Spain. With too few seats to govern, Sanchez was forced to rely on small regional parties to pass legislation. The Catalan votes that helped him unseat his center-right predecessor, Mariano Rajoy, in June worked against him in February.

Polls generally suggest that no single party will win a majority. The Socialists appear on track to emerge as the largest party, but too frail and outnumbered by the conservative Popular Party, the center-right Ciudadanos and far-right Vox to govern. Leftist Podemos has dropped almost out of sight. A poll cited by Reuters forecasts a breakthrough for Vox, with far-right lawmakers elected to the country’s parliament for the first time in nearly four decades.

The New York Times notes that a secessionist drive in the prosperous northern region of Catalonia has challenged both the country’s territorial integrity and the core arrangements of the 1978 Constitution for Spain. The ongoing trial of 12 Catalan separatists, accused of rebellion and sedition over their unrecognized independence referendum in 2017, has exacerbated polarization in the country. According to the newspaper, Catalans have held the stability of the government hostage to their grievance that Spain siphons off their wealth and that their region’s unique language and culture entitle it to separate.

• Far-right to get seats in Spanish parliament: opinion polls (Reuters Feb 2019)
• Yet Another Election for Spain Reveals Deeper Strains (NYT Feb 2019)
• Economy May Take a Back Seat in Spain's Upcoming Election (Bloomberg Feb 2019)

#23021 Published: 02/21/2019

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The series of succession rites ahead of abdication begin on Mar 26, when Akihito visits the Nara Prefecture mausoleum of Emperor Jimmu, Japan’s legendary first Emperor, to report the abdication. He travels to the Grand Shrines of Ise in Mie Prefecture on Apr 18 and on Apr 23 he will visit the Tokyo mausoleum of his father, Hirohito, now more commonly known by his posthumous name, the Emperor Showa, for the same purpose. Akihito will also again ceremonially report the abdication to his ancestors at the Imperial Palace.

The 83-year-old emperor has been on the throne since the death of his father in 1989. He has had heart surgery and prostate cancer, and said in Aug 2016 that his age and health would make it difficult to fulfil his duties.

Japanese law doesn't provide for abdication; emperors, considered spiritually immortal, are expected to serve until death. In Jun 2018 the government enacted a bill that allowed him to step down. The BBC describes it as a one-off piece of legislation that does not allow Naruhito or his successors to abdicate.

National Public Radio notes that, parting from the aloof nature of imperial families of the past, Akihito enjoys popularity in Japan that stems from gestures that have demonstrated his empathy for the common people. When Japan was hit in 2011 by a massive tsunami that killed thousands and left tens of thousands homeless, according to the U.S. broadcaster, “the emperor abandoned formality to comfort the Japanese people.”

• Japan's Emperor Akihito To Abdicate In April 2019 (NPR Dec 2017)
• Japan's Emperor Akihito to abdicate in April 2019 (BBC Dec 2017)
• At palace in Tokyo, Emperor Akihito starts series of succession rites ahead of abdication (Kyodo Mar 2019)

#22792 Updated: 03/19/2019 UPDATED MAR 18 TO INCLUDE DETAILS OF ABDICATION RITUALS

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