مواعيد مهمة في الانتخابات الأميركية infographic
Graphic shows key dates in the U.S. presidential race.
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مواعيد مهمة في الانتخابات الأميركية

By Duncan Mil

June 12, 2024 - الرئيس جو بايدن، الديمقراطي، والرئيس السابق دونالد ترامب، الجمهوري، سيتواجهان في يوم الانتخابات، 5 تشرين الثاني، في ما من المتوقع أن يكون منافسة متقاربة.

The latest polling forecast, published by website 538 on June 11, shows Biden has a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 47-in-100 chance. However, this election could still go either way.

“The range of realistic Electoral College outcomes generated by our forecasting model stretches from 132 to 445 electoral votes for Biden -- a testament to how much things could change by November,” G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist for 538, wrote.

However, Trump leads Biden in most polls of the swing states, despite being convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection to a scheme to pay hush money to a porn star during the 2016 election.

“To forecast the election, we rely primarily on polls asking voters whom they support,” Morris added.

“However, our forecast also incorporates various economic and political indicators that aren’t related to polling but can be used to make rough predictions for the election.”

Website 538 said it will update its forecast simulator daily between now and November’s election.

Sources
PUBLISHED: 12/06/2024; STORY: Graphic News; PICTURES: Getty Images
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