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Graphic shows jobs threatened by country in the EU following a hard Brexit.
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BUSINESS

EU jobs at risk from hard Brexit

By Duncan Mil

February 14, 2019 - If the UK leaves the EU without an agreement on international trade -- a “hard Brexit” -- more than 435,000 jobs will be affected across the bloc, according to a new study by the Halle Institute for Economic Research.

“Potential International Employment Effects of a Hard Brexit” by economists Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch and Oliver Holtemöller looked into a hard Brexit’s potential impact on jobs in 56 industrial sectors across 43 countries while assuming a 25 per cent drop in UK imports from the EU.

The authors conclude that Germany could lose the most jobs with around 103,000 threatened if the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal. In Germany, about 15,000 persons in the auto industry are working directly or indirectly for exports to the UK. More than 173,000 jobs in France, Poland, Italy and Spain will also be at risk.

Since production relies on global supply chains, not only firms in the remaining EU countries will suffer from declining exports to the UK. Supplies from China, India and the United States -- which contribute to EU exports to the UK — also threaten 108,000 workers.

In total, about 612,000 jobs are affected in the 43 countries examined. If the decline in UK imports is limited to 10 per cent, then the number of jobs affected falls to around 250,000.

Sources
PUBLISHED: 14/02/2019; STORY: Graphic News; PICTURES: Getty Images
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