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UK Budget – GDP growth

By Duncan Mil

November 22, 2017 - British Chancellor Philip Hammond presents his first autumn Budget, setting the stage ahead of Brexit. Here we pick out key indicators from the Chancellor’s Budget speech, shown in seven charts.

The basis for all of the forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the Treasury’s official prognosticator, are its view of productivity, or the nation’s output per hour worked.

The OBR has downgraded its estimate of productivity growth, a key ingredient of overall GDP growth, and these downgrades have a negative impact on the OBR’s view of how rapidly the overall economy will grow over the coming years.

The OBR now expects growth to dip to just 1.3 per cent in 2019, the year of Brexit. Even worse, it only expects growth to pick up moderately to 1.6 per cent by 2022.

In March, the OBR expected the economy to grow by 7.5 per cent in the five years to 2021-22. Now, it expects just 5.7 per cent growth over that period.

This is the worst five-year GDP outlook produced by the OBR since it was established in 2010.

Sources
PUBLISHED: 22/11/2017; STORY: Source: Ben Chu, Economics Editor, The Independent
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